--- id: "01M4VZH71EWCH8MW6JG5QVWPZN" url: "https://factriot.app/r/01M4VZH71EWCH8MW6JG5QVWPZN" canonical_url: "https://phys.org/news/2026-10-thwaites-glacier-contribute-sea-previously.html" domain: "phys.org" title: "Thwaites Glacier could contribute twice as much sea-level rise as previously projected" state: ready checked_at: "2026-10-14T01:15:01.225Z" author_type: system requested_by_type: agent kind: page subject: null claim_count: 28 license: "ODbL-1.0" alternates: html: "https://factriot.app/r/01M4VZH71EWCH8MW6JG5QVWPZN" json: "https://factriot.app/r/01M4VZH71EWCH8MW6JG5QVWPZN.json" --- # Thwaites Glacier could contribute twice as much sea-level rise as previously projected Source: https://phys.org/news/2026-10-thwaites-glacier-contribute-sea-previously.html (phys.org) ## Claim 1 — Unverified > Thwaites Glacier could contribute twice as much sea-level rise as previously projected - [tc.copernicus.org](https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021) — context — "F., Fyke, J., and Perego, M.: Effect of Subshelf Melt Variability on Sea Level Rise Contribution From Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, J." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:32.380Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 2 — Unverified > A new ice sheet model developed by glaciologists at the University of California, Irvine and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory projects that the melting of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica will contribute up to 30 millimeters (1.2 inches) of sea level rise by 2100—twice previous estimates—even without additional climate warming. - [www.iceye.com](https://www.iceye.com/newsroom/press-releases/new-30-year-antarctic-study-reveals-massive-ice-loss-uncovered-by-commercial-satellite-radar) — context — "The research team included scientists from UC Irvine, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, France's University Grenoble Alpes, and the University of Washington, as well as collaborators from ICEYE Global in Finland and ICEYE US in Irvine, California." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:33.183Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 3 — Unverified > In a paper published in Nature Communications, the researchers explained that by adjusting a computer model of Thwaites to include the concept of a "grounding zone" instead of a "grounding line," they were able to reconstruct historical glacier change from the 1990s to the present that is four times more pronounced than traditional models. - [tc.copernicus.org](https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021) — context — "At present, however, earth system models with built-in interactive ice sheets remain in their infancy (Vizcaino, 2014) and are not yet able to adequately resolve ice sheet processes such as grounding line migration at the necessary resolution, requiring intermediate steps." - [www.dw.com](https://www.dw.com/en/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-unstoppable/a-17632087) — context — "The second report, published in the journal "Science," uses computer models to study the Thwaites glacier." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:33.973Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 4 — Unverified > "Glaciologists have long based their assumptions of ice sheet dynamics on the 'grounding line,' a discrete, narrow and mostly stable demarcation where ice leaves the land and begins floating on water," said lead author Mattia Poinelli, who was a UC Irvine postdoctoral scholar in Earth system science when this study was conducted. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:34.749Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 5 — Corroborated > Satellite observations demonstrate the existence of a 'grounding zone,' sometimes kilometers wide, where warm ocean water is reaching deep underneath the ice sheets and causing vigorous melting." - [www.sciencenews.org](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/warm-water-under-thwaites-glacier-melt) — supports — "As each rising tide lifts the coastal terminus of the southern continent’s Thwaites Glacier a tiny bit off the seafloor, warm salty water squeezes in underneath, satellite measurements reveal. … Thwaites is especially vulnerable because parts of its grounding zone (where it lifts off its bed and floats on the ocean) sit as far as 1 kilometer below sea level, exposing it to the warmest water." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:35.524Z unverified · initial · [system] - 2026-10-14T01:22:40.704Z unverified → corroborated · l3_supports · [system] ## Claim 6 — Corroborated > Thwaites Glacier is in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector of West Antarctica, which accounts for roughly one-third of the mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. - [science.nasa.gov](https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/decline-of-west-antarctic-glaciers-appears-irreversible-83672) — supports — "Called the weak underbelly of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the Amundsen Sea region contains several fast-moving glaciers, including Pine Island, Thwaites, Haynes, Pope, Smith, and Kohler." - [tc.copernicus.org](https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021) — context — "E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Underway for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a … J.: Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Geophys." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:36.300Z unverified · initial · [system] - 2026-10-14T01:22:42.668Z unverified → corroborated · l3_supports · [system] ## Claim 7 — Unverified > In recent decades, Thwaites has undergone rapid retreat and thinning, but scientists have been struggling to reconcile ice sheet models that show slower movement with satellite observations that show substantial ice flow acceleration. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:37.080Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 8 — Unverified > The UC Irvine-led team worked to calibrate ice sheet models against observations spanning more than 20 years. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:37.858Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 9 — Unverified > Using synthetic aperture radar readings from the Finnish ICEYE satellite constellation, the researchers have been able to detect kilometer-scale fluctuations in the grounding zone along the main trunk of Thwaites. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:38.640Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 10 — Corroborated > The data indicate that seawater penetrates several kilometers beneath grounded ice and lifts it during tidal cycles, flushing the ice with pressurized, warm seawater being pushed to the Antarctic coastline by currents that have been altered by climate change. - [www.sciencenews.org](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/warm-water-under-thwaites-glacier-melt) — supports — "This inrush of seawater forces its way many kilometers inland as it melts the ice from beneath." - [tc.copernicus.org](https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021) — context — "Bulthuis, K., Arnst, M., Sun, S., and Pattyn, F.: Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change, The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, 2019. a" History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:39.419Z unverified · initial · [system] - 2026-10-14T01:22:46.211Z unverified → corroborated · l3_supports · [system] ## Claim 11 — Not auto-checked > According to Poinelli, a NASA JPL research affiliate who is now a project scientist at UCLA, this study showed that grounding zone processes are causing accelerated detachment of Thwaites Glacier from stabilizing ridges, leading to more rapid ice flow and deterioration. Not auto-checked: this sentence names a private individual or small business, so no automated status is given. Evidence only. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:40.199Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 12 — Unverified > "The Thwaites main trunk is being temporarily stabilized by the Mouginot Ridge," he said. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:40.980Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 13 — Unverified > "Once that ridge is unpinned, the glacier will continually retreat across a predominantly retrograde seafloor toward its next topographic high, the South Ridge." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:41.755Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 14 — Not auto-checked > Poinelli said that computer simulations that factor in a 4–6-kilometer grounding zone (2.5–3.7 miles) predict a 60% probability of unpinning the Mouginot Ridge by the end of the century. Not auto-checked: this sentence names a private individual or small business, so no automated status is given. Evidence only. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:42.533Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 15 — Unverified > "We have documented and quantified the impacts of climate change on our planet's sensitive ice sheets for decades, but a mounting realization gained in recent years of what is happening on the undersides of glaciers like Thwaites is leading to an even greater sense of alarm," said co-author Eric Rignot, UC Irvine professor of Earth system science. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:43.316Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 16 — Unverified > "Most projections to date have struggled to match the rapidity of the mass loss because of missing physics; our new model with more complete physics is able to match the record and then produces projections that are twice as large as before. - [tc.copernicus.org](https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021) — context — "Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Aschwanden, A., Khroulev, C., Boberg, F., Mottram, R., and Lucas-Picher, P.: Role of model initialization for projections of 21st-century Greenland ice sheet mass loss, J." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:44.103Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 17 — Unverified > These results predict greater risk of and exposure to coastal flooding than anticipated in the coming decades." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:44.883Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 18 — Unverified > Mattia Poinelli et al., Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model, Nature Communications (2026). History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:45.670Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 19 — Corroborated > Provided by University of California, Irvine - [science.nasa.gov](https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/decline-of-west-antarctic-glaciers-appears-irreversible-83672) — supports — "Image courtesy Jeremie Mouginot, University of California, Irvine, originally published in Geophysical Research Letters." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:46.461Z unverified · initial · [system] - 2026-10-14T01:22:52.883Z unverified → corroborated · l3_supports · [system] ## Claim 20 — Unverified > Bachelor's in mathematical biology, Master's in creative writing. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:47.251Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 21 — Unverified > Well-traveled with unique perspectives on science and language. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:48.040Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 22 — Unverified > An ice-sheet model incorporates seawater intrusion across Thwaites Glacier’s grounding zone. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:48.830Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 23 — Unverified > The ice-sheet model projects up to 30 mm of sea-level rise by 2100 without additional warming. History: - 2026-10-14T01:15:59.835Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 24 — Unverified > The ice-sheet model's projection of up to 30 mm of sea-level rise by 2100 is twice previous estimates. - [www.iceye.com](https://www.iceye.com/newsroom/press-releases/new-30-year-antarctic-study-reveals-massive-ice-loss-uncovered-by-commercial-satellite-radar) — context — "Accurate and frequent mapping of the continental grounding line record is crucial for ice sheet models tasked with projecting future sea level rise, directly informing planning for coastal communities worldwide." History: - 2026-10-14T01:16:00.932Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 25 — Corroborated > Warm water beneath grounded ice accelerates melting. - [schmidt.astro.cornell.edu](https://schmidt.astro.cornell.edu/thwaites_publications/nature-heterogeneous-melting-near-the-thwaites-glacier-grounding-line) — supports — "Beneath steeply sloping parts of the ice the water remained warm and the ice contained scallop features from strong melting." - [www.sciencenews.org](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/warm-water-under-thwaites-glacier-melt) — supports — "The researchers could detect this because the satellite radar showed the top surface of the ice rising and falling as the water moved beneath it. … “The glacier ice hates the salt” because it accelerates melting, Rignot says." - [science.nasa.gov](https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/decline-of-west-antarctic-glaciers-appears-irreversible-83672) — supports — "Most melting happens from below, when warm ocean currents undercut and thin the ice. Water also eliminates friction beneath the glacier, allowing ice to flow more quickly." History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:49.611Z unverified · initial · [system] - 2026-10-14T01:22:57.964Z unverified → corroborated · l3_supports · [system] ## Claim 26 — Corroborated > Warm water beneath grounded ice accelerates retreat. - [schmidt.astro.cornell.edu](https://schmidt.astro.cornell.edu/thwaites_publications/nature-heterogeneous-melting-near-the-thwaites-glacier-grounding-line) — supports — "Beneath steeply sloping parts of the ice the water remained warm and the ice contained scallop features from strong melting." History: - 2026-10-14T01:16:01.775Z unverified · initial · [system] - 2026-10-14T01:22:59.917Z unverified → corroborated · l3_supports · [system] ## Claim 27 — Unverified > Simulations estimate a 60% probability of detachment from a stabilizing ridge by 2100. History: - 2026-10-14T01:16:02.603Z unverified · initial · [system] ## Claim 28 — Unverified > This summary was automatically generated using LLM. History: - 2026-10-14T01:13:50.409Z unverified · initial · [system]